Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

The aim of the study is to substantiate probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting low flow discharge and its implementation Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area Lower Dnieper rivers, taking into account climatic patterns precipitation distribution establishing probabilistic characteristics in multi-year period. a zone significant risk due shortage water resources, formation extremely runoff dry period, which requires definition forecasting. methodological basis forecasts solve equation determining components rivers by constructing regional dependences average decade summer-autumn from previous (in modules), their probabilities number intakes. Results. paper substantiates summer, autumn winter periods) based on construction decadal modules groups basins studied territory establishment methodology territorial short-term river assessed as satisfactory with margin error 70 % 97 %, members more than 500 points. To determine cumulative probability forecast values weather flow, empirical monthly limited seasons, are generalized Ukraine, established. Scientific novelty. For first time insufficient natural content discharge, determination occurrence period cartographic representation prognostic have been developed practically implemented. practical importance use maps spatial monitoring assessment levels whole region, including ungauged – assess possible runoff, even when it reaches close environmental critical functioning ecosystem.